The demand for renewable electricity in Europe, documented with Guarantees of Origin (GOs), grew briskly in 2015 – up more than 9% from 2014 and surpassing 343 TWh. Based on recent statistics from The Association of Issuing Bodies (AIB), the growth trend continues in 2016. Mid-year figures show a growth-rate in excess of 6.3% from 2015 to 2016. From 2012 to 2016 the market has experienced an annual growth (CAGR) of 14.3%.
Germany is the largest single national market for renewable power consumption, but for the first time, its yearly growth seems to have slowed down. Renewable purchases of 65 TWh during the first half of 2016, represents a decline of 5% compared to same period in 2015. Italy, France and Finland are examples of countries that have markets growing faster than Germany. Both Sweden and Switzerland have large and stable markets for renewable purchases. Spain is the wildcard of 2016. As the 4th largest renewable producer in Europe, Spain will finally join the European marketplace for renewables – likely during Q3 this year. With 70 TWh of national Guarantees of Origin available, it remains to be seen how Spain’s entrance will impact the market balance. The UK is now the only remaining large renewable producer not actively participating in the European market. The AIB statistics only include Guarantees of Origin based on the EECS standard. EECS Guarantees of Origin are tradable across national borders among countries that have joined AIB and that are connected to AIB’s electronic hub. There are still European markets with national renewable certificate systems that have yet to adopt the EECS standard (incl. the above-mentioned Spain and UK), and that do not participate in the Pan-European market place. These markets total more than 200 TWh of purchased renewable power.
