Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has released the findings of its Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook (GREMO), modelling investment in new renewable energy generation to 2030. The likeliest scenario is that global investment will jump by 230%, to US$ 630bn per year by 2030.
The predictions draw upon BNEF’s Global Energy and Emissions Model, an integrated model which analyses the main determinants of the future energy market. Three scenarios are identified. The New Normal scenario is considered the most likely. It shows the investment requirement for new clean energy assets in the year 2030 at US$ 630 billion (in nominal terms). In the power sector, the research company’s latest forecasts project that 70% of new power generation capacity added between 2012 and 2030 will be from renewable technologies (including large hydro). Only 25% will be in the form of coal, gas or oil, the remaining being nuclear. Wind and solar will take up the largest shares of new power capacity added in terms of GW by 2030, accounting for 30% and 24% respectively. By 2030 renewable technologies will account for 50% of new power generation capacity installed around the world, up from 28% in 2012. In terms of power produced, the share of renewables will increase from 22% in 2012 to 37% in 2030. The other two scenarios look somewhat different, although in both cases, there will be further growth in renewable energy demand. Capital requirements for renewable energy could reach US$ 880 billion by 2030, under the Barrier Busting assumptions (US$ 9.3 trillion cumulative from 2013). This would require an additional US$ 2 trillion (22% increase) invested in supporting infrastructure such as long distance transmission systems, smart grids, storage and demand response. Under a more pessimistic view of the world, in the Traditional Territory scenario, renewable energy investment requirements are projected to be US$ 470bn by 2030 (US$ 6.1 trillion cumulative).
