The U.S. wind market will add 14.6GW of capacity in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest North America wind power outlook. The record-setting mark underlines the strength of the 23GW pipeline Wood Mackenzie has identified as currently under construction or contracted for commercial operation in 2020.
The phase out of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) beginning in 2021 has developers rushing to complete projects in 2020, driving major bottlenecks in both logistics and interconnection queues. As a result, project delays are mounting, negatively impacting the amount and timing of wind capacity installations. Wood Mackenzie’s forecast assumes 6.6 GW of projects scheduled for 2020 will not reach completion by the end of this year but will connect to the grid in 2021. The report estimates that roughly 1.5 GW of additional capacity will be cancelled outright – typically ahead of project construction – with any attached offtakers likely choosing solar PV resources for subsequent PPAs to replace the lost generation. Solar PV, which benefits from the 30% solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC), is beginning to compete more effectively with onshore wind on cost. Wood Mackenzie forecasts the U.S. to add 12.3 GW of wind power in 2021, before bottoming out at 5.9 GW in 2024.
