Germany’s offshore wind industry could lose around two-thirds of its current full-time-equivalent jobs by 2045 if project development remains inconsistent. The study, Value creation from offshore wind energy in Germany – additional scenarios, by wind:research, compares the target of 70 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2045 with a scenario in which project delays and cancellations lead to a prolonged gap in orders.
The study estimates that the crisis scenario could also result in more than €550 billion in cumulative lost revenue and leave offshore wind capacity 36 GW below the national target.
Germany’s offshore wind industry currently supports around 31,530 full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs. Under the crisis scenario, this figure would fall to approximately 9,000 by 2045. By contrast, achieving the 70 GW target could create around 90,000 additional FTE jobs.
The industry generated around €14.6 billion in annual revenue in 2025, including exports. The study estimates that revenue could reach €57 billion by 2045 under the reference scenario, but fall to around €4 billion annually if development remains weak. Cumulative lost revenue could exceed €550 billion by 2045.
Under the crisis scenario, Germany would have around 34 GW of offshore wind capacity installed by 2045, compared with the target of 70 GW. The resulting shortfall would affect the availability of electricity for the electrification of transport, heating and industry.
The German Offshore Wind Energy Association (BWO) is calling for changes to the proposed amendment to the Offshore Wind Energy Act to improve the likelihood of projects proceeding and provide greater certainty for the supply chain.
Its proposals include two-sided contracts for difference to reduce electricity market risks, cost indexation between auction awards and final investment decisions, and a one-time option for financially vulnerable projects awarded areas between 2023 and 2025 to return them for re-tendering.
The BWO argues that these measures could help secure orders, maintain manufacturing capacity and protect employment in Germany’s offshore wind industry.
