Global offshore wind projects have faced challenges due to inflation and supply chain disruptions, leading to delays in permitting, auctions, and supply chain development. Despite these issues, the sector grew by 7% in 2023, with further growth of 9% expected in 2024, adding over 11 GW of capacity.
Rystad Energy forecasts continued steady growth, with global offshore wind installations projected to exceed 520 GW by 2040, excluding mainland China.
Europe will be a key player, particularly in floating wind, which is expected to account for over 70% of global installations by 2040. The UK, France, and Portugal are set to lead this segment, with floating wind capacity projected to reach nearly 90 GW by 2040. Asia, excluding mainland China, is also expected to capture 20% of global floating wind installations by 2040. However, supply chain constraints could limit the advancement of floating wind in the short term, with less than 7 GW expected by 2030, highlighting the need for increased government support.
The bottom-fixed market is expected to be dominated by the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands, which are projected to collectively reach 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040. The US is expected to follow with less than 40 GW, though its future growth depends on its political landscape. Significant growth is anticipated in the Americas and Asia between 2025 and 2030, with Europe leading the way with 41 GW of capacity by 2025 and over 112 GW by 2030.
Between 2030 and 2035, further growth is expected in Asia, the Americas, and Europe, with Latin America, particularly Brazil and Colombia, beginning to contribute to offshore wind capacity. In floating wind, Europe and Asia are expected to lead until 2030, with substantial growth anticipated in the following five years, especially in Europe, which could add 20 GW of floating wind capacity between 2030 and 2035. By 2040, Europe is expected to have more than 65 GW of floating wind capacity, with Asia, excluding mainland China, reaching 17 GW.
