The latest edition of the Global Wind Turbine Technology Trends report, published by by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, forecasts rapid innovations up until 2027. These innovations are reducing LCOE on latest turbines, while at the same time improving performance and reliability. To withstand the increasing price pressure associated with a stream of headlines heralding plummeting power price bids, turbine OEMs are being forced to make large investments in technology.
The research company expects the global market share of the top five turbine OEMs to rise to more than 73% in2027, compared to just 54% in 2016. Fierce competition is also leading to shorter product lifecycles, as turbine OEMs introduce new product platforms to increase efficiency and performance. The research predicts the newest platforms will have fewer product variants delivering the same demand volume, reinforcing the evolutionary product strategy approach many turbine OEMs are pursuing. The rapid pace of new product introductions will only begin to slow down post-2020. According to the research, the US, Latin America and eventually smaller emerging wind markets will transition to 4.X turbines, which were previously expected to be limited to the European market, in the next two years. The turbine ASP (Average Selling Price) per MW has declined by 28% since 2010, however the AEP (Annual Energy production) per MW has increased in excess of 50% during the same period. As developers are showing proclivity towards merchant PPAs (Power Purchasing Agreements), turbine OEMs are working towards sub EUR 30/MWhr LCOE turbines to address this demand.
