The offshore wind industry is set for renewed expansion following a period of slower growth, according to research from Rystad Energy. Increased investment and a wave of new project approvals are expected to drive the sector forward, with a particular focus on developments in China, Europe, and the USA.
Research indicates that global offshore wind capacity additions will reach 19 GW in 2025, with total sector expenditure projected at $80 billion. This follows a decline in new installations in the previous year, when capacity additions fell to approximately 8 GW, lower than the year before. The recovery is largely driven by lease auctions, with China accounting for a significant share of new developments. The anticipated capacity increase will exceed the previous peak recorded in 2021.
While lease auctions are creating new opportunities, there remains some uncertainty about final agreements. In 2024, a record 55 GW of offshore wind capacity was made available through lease auctions outside of China, but not all of it was awarded. The USA, for example, saw no bids for a floating wind auction off the coast of Oregon, while only part of the capacity offered in the Gulf of Maine was allocated. The volume of lease auctions is expected to be lower in 2025, with available capacity estimated between 30 GW and 40 GW.
Project delays affected investment decisions for offshore wind projects last year, limiting the number of new approvals. In the USA, only a few projects, including Empire Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, moved forward. A similar level of investment decisions is expected in Europe and Asia in 2025, with possible increases in the USA as key projects secure agreements and regulatory approvals.
Despite these challenges, several developments progressed in 2024. In the UK, the Inch Cape wind farm reached financial close after securing long-term revenue contracts in previous years. Other offshore wind projects advancing last year included Windanker in Germany, OranjeWind in the Netherlands, and Sunrise Wind 1 in the United States.
The outlook for 2025 suggests that the UK, Poland, and Germany will see the highest levels of offshore wind investment in Europe. In Poland, major wind farms, including Baltyk II and III, are expected to reach key financial milestones following recent approvals for Baltica 2.
