MAKE expects 255GW of wind power to be installed, and 263GW to be commissioned in China from 2016 to 2025. The China wind power industry adjusts following an installation rush over the last two years ahead of implementation of lower FITs in January 2016. An 8% and 23% of YoY reduction in new installed and grid-connected capacity in 2016, respectively, is expected after a record year of growth in 2015.
Growth is expected to shift to Class IV projects (most of which are in southern regions) in 2016 and 2017. This is due to the fact that FIT levels for Class IV regions remain unchanged in 2016 whereas FIT levels in Class I, II and III regions were lowered on 1 January 2016. However, market development is expected to intensify in northern regions when the second round of FIT reductions are carried out in 2018.China’s offshore sector will continue to develop at a slow pace through 2020 relative to the market’s fast-paced onshore sector. The difference is due largely to a lack of experience and an immature offshore supply chain. MAKE forecasts 10.1GW of offshore wind power capacity installed by the end of 2020, with development expected to accelerate post-2020. The grid gap in China will increase in 2016 and 2017 from 16.1GW to 21.6GW due to the effect of the installation rush. The grid gap will gradually decrease after 2017, but MAKE expects a 6.8GW grid gap will remain by the end of 2025.
