BTM Consult has released a special report on the international wind power industry. The report gives a comprehensive review of the decade 1995–2004, covering markets, supplies and consolidation of the wind power industry. Two new scenarios for future development of wind power are presented: a short-term forecast for 2015 and a long-term scenario for 2025.
Forecast to 2015 (business as usual, but with higher oil and gas prices):
• Annual installation will increase from the 2004 figure of 8,152MW to 32,720MW in 2015.
• Cumulative capacity will increase from the 2004 figure of 48,000MW to 271,512MW.
• The average growth in annual installation for the whole period is 13.5% p.a.
• The average growth in cumulative installation for the whole period is 17.1% p.a.
• The fastest growing regions will be America and Asia (in particular the USA, China and India).
• The forecast for 2015 represents a total investment cost of US$ 220–250 billion.
Scenario for 2025 ‘Environment and Security of Supply focused Policy’:
• Wind power will in 2025 have reached a global penetration of 8.6%, from an aggregated installation of more than 1 million MW wind power capacity.
• The annual installation of new capacity by end of the scenario reaches 115,000MW per year – about 14 times today’s installation rate (2004).
• America, Asia and Europe will be of equal size in terms of installed wind power capacity.
For the long-term scenario, as well as for the forecast for 2015, it is suggested that oil and gas prices will maintain a level of US$ 40–50 per barrel, making wind power electricity highly economically attractive.
