Offshore wind market indicators remained subdued during the second quarter of 2026, although a renewed focus on energy security is improving prospects for the sector's recovery. According to the latest Global Market Overview report from TGS | 4C, countries including the UK, France and Germany have accelerated renewable energy ambitions in an effort to reduce reliance on imported energy. The latest outlook includes slightly lower forecasts for 2030 and moderately higher expectations for 2040, reflecting near-term delivery challenges alongside stronger long-term market fundamentals. The report also notes improving conditions across several areas of the offshore wind market, supporting more consistent project progression in 2026 and beyond.
The global offshore wind installed capacity forecast for 2030 has been reduced by 11% year on year, with expected capacity outside China declining from 133 GW to 119 GW. Compared with the previous quarter, the 2030 forecast has been lowered by 2 GW, primarily due to continued auction delays and project timing adjustments.
The analysis also shows a 15% decline in 2040 expectations compared with Q2 2025 and a 26% decline compared with Q2 2024, highlighting the scale of recent market recalibration. However, many projects are progressing to more advanced stages of development in 2026, indicating the potential for significant deployment growth during the next decade.
Key market indicators for Q2 2026 included:
- Auctions: No offshore wind auctions were awarded during the quarter. France's AO9 auction was delayed and Estonia's Saare 3 tender failed. However, Denmark and South Korea reported bidder participation levels sufficient to support future awards.
- Commissioning: A total of 518 MW was commissioned outside China and 1.1 GW within China during Q2. Global offshore wind capacity now stands at 91.5 GW. Total installations for 2026 are expected to reach around 15 GW, making it the second-highest year on record.
- Permitting: Three UK projects received consent during the quarter: Dogger Bank South, Dogger Bank North (both 1.5 GW) and North Falls (504 MW). TGS | 4C expects around 20 GW of projects to receive consent in 2026, including 18.6 GW in Europe.
- Investment: Final investment decisions covering 518 MW were taken during Q2, all in the Asia-Pacific region, including 390 MW in South Korea and 128 MW in Vietnam. The full-year 2026 forecast for final investment decisions remains 8.8 GW, supported by a backlog of projects delayed between 2022 and 2024.
The report also highlights rising costs linked to geopolitical developments. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, diesel prices increased by 34.6% year on year. Hot-rolled coil steel prices rose by 37% and copper prices by 35% over the same period. According to TGS | 4C, geopolitical events, including disruptions to trade routes and tariffs in the USA, continue to influence offshore wind project economics and supply chains.
