WindEurope and Hitachi Energy have released a joint study assessing the total system costs of five possible energy pathways for Europe to 2050. Four pathways reach net zero, while a fifth “slow transition” pathway does not. The analysis concludes that a system built around high shares of wind and solar remains the lowest-cost option, even when accounting for grids, storage and back-up generation.
The study shows that scenarios relying more heavily on nuclear, hydrogen or carbon capture all result in higher system costs than a renewables-based pathway. By 2050, the additional cost ranges from €487bn to €600bn. The gap is far wider when compared with a slow transition: a renewables-based energy system is €1.6tn less expensive, largely due to lower residual fuel use and lower carbon-related costs. By 2035, the renewables scenario already shows a €331bn saving over the slow transition.
According to the assessment, a renewables-led system involves a larger share of electricity across the energy mix and requires significant investment in electrification, particularly in industry. These costs are included in the modelling, which still finds the renewables pathway to be the most cost-effective to 2050.
The report notes that a system dominated by domestic wind and solar also offers a strong energy security margin. Power production consistently exceeds demand across the modelling period, and dependence on imported energy falls from 71% in 2030 to 22% in 2050. In the slow transition pathway, import dependence remains 78% in 2030 and 54% in 2050.
WindEurope and Hitachi Energy add that a renewables-centred system is less vulnerable to external shocks. Additional benefits include employment: the European wind sector provides work for about 440,000 people today and is projected to reach 600,000 by 2030.
The organisations state that Europe’s energy transition is already progressing. Wind and solar accounted for less than 1% of electricity generation in 2000 but supply about 30% today, while overall emissions have fallen by nearly one-third over the same period and the European economy has grown by 45%.
