Offshore wind is continuing to deliver projects in 2026, but the pipeline of new investment remains under pressure, according to TGS | 4C’s latest quarterly Global Market Overview. Only 2.1 GW has reached final investment decision (FID) so far in 2026, while more than 12 GW is expected to enter operation this year. By year-end, 5.6 GW is expected to reach FID, which would make 2026 the second-lowest year for offshore wind investment decisions since 2020, according to the report.
Final consent awards are advancing strongly, with 22.2 GW forecast to receive consent in 2026, making it the second-highest year on record.
The contrast highlights a challenge facing the industry: both early-phase development assets and projects under construction are progressing, but developers remain cautious about committing capital to the next generation of projects.
Global offshore wind capacity currently stands at around 92.7 GW in operation, with a further 41.2 GW under construction and 7.1 GW having reached FID.
New projects continue to face economic pressure. Prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, higher financing costs and rising commodity prices are increasing the cost of developing and financing offshore wind projects. Long-term borrowing costs in the UK, USA and euro area remain around their highest levels in 15 years, while steel prices are 53% higher year-on-year.
Financing costs are a critical factor in whether projects proceed. TGS | 4C estimates that a one percentage-point increase in the cost of capital can increase the levelised cost of electricity for an offshore wind project by around 9–11%.
The report also provides an assessment of the offshore wind foundation market, with around 19,400 foundations forecast to be installed globally between 2026 and 2040.
Monopiles remain the preferred foundation type, while floating foundations are expected to account for 11% of demand. In Europe, available monopile and jacket manufacturing capacity means a structural supply shortage is considered unlikely.
TGS | 4C has also revised its long-term global offshore wind outlook to around 474 GW by 2040. The revision reflects continued uncertainty around project economics, financing, policy and delivery timelines.
