A report from the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University says the next five years will be critical for ensuring the UK's energy transition becomes a long-term economic opportunity for North East Scotland. The report, Delivering Positive Energy, states that the decline in the region's oil and gas workforce must be matched by growth in offshore renewables employment during this period. It says the region has the potential to develop into a major multi-energy hub serving North Sea countries involved in the energy transition.
The study also warns that if oil and gas activity declines more rapidly than offshore renewables expand, the region could lose skilled workers, supply chain capacity and broader economic strength. The report notes that rebuilding these capabilities would be difficult once they are lost.
Key findings include:
- North East Scotland retains advantages such as a skilled workforce, established supply chain, competitive business and housing costs, strong transport links and an established energy sector.
- Around one-third of the UK's 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs are located in the region.
- The region accounts for about one-quarter of the UK's 154,000 offshore energy jobs.
- Approximately 90% of the regional offshore energy workforce is employed in oil and gas, with the remaining 10% in renewables.
- The regional offshore energy workforce fell from about 56,000 in 2016 to roughly 42,200 in 2024, representing close to one-sixth of the region's working population.
- Depending on future investment levels, the workforce could decline by a further 18,000 jobs by 2035.
- Offshore energy salaries are typically up to twice the average income level in North East Scotland.
- With supportive policies and sustained investment, the report says there are realistic pathways to maintain jobs and economic activity during the transition.
The report was part-funded by Scottish Enterprise. It describes the coming five years as a "Goldilocks zone" in which matching oil and gas job losses with renewables growth is necessary to avoid a permanent loss of skills and industrial capability.
The study highlights the scale of future offshore wind development in Europe, with around 17,000 turbines and associated infrastructure expected to be built and installed by 2050. The UK, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium are expected to deliver most of Europe's 300 GW offshore wind target.
The report says North East Scotland is geographically well placed to support this expansion, with more than 70% of ScotWind leasing bids located within 100 nautical miles of the region's coastline.
According to the report, more than 90% of the skills held by the region's offshore energy workforce are transferable to renewables and related sectors.
It concludes that a coordinated approach combining private investment with targeted public support will be needed to provide the confidence and certainty required for the transition.
