As the USA seeks to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains by increasing domestic oil and gas production, its offshore wind industry continues to face economic headwinds, including project delays, reduced tax incentives, and rising costs. According to Rystad Energy, new global offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 16 GW by the end of 2025, with around two thirds of that total being developed in China. By 2030, China’s offshore wind sector is forecast to represent 45% of global cumulative capacity, leaving the USA struggling to keep pace even if policies shift.
Investment trends reflect this imbalance. US renewable energy investment has fallen by 36% year-on-year in 2025, while European spending is increasing as capital flows away from the US market. Stop-work orders have affected several major projects, including Ørsted’s Rhode Island and Revolution developments, and Equinor’s New York project, though the latter has since resumed following an agreement with the authorities. The outcome of further legal proceedings for Ørsted’s Revolution project remains uncertain.
China, meanwhile, is pressing ahead with large-scale developments. CNOOC plans to commission its first utility-scale offshore wind project, the 1.5 GW Hainan CZ7, before 2030. This expansion underlines China’s strengthening position, while European companies with limited US exposure are likely to deepen reliance on Chinese supply chains.
Rystad Energy notes that building a Western supply chain to rival China’s dominance remains a major challenge. Around a quarter of the manufacturing sites producing key components for Western turbine makers are still located in China, despite earlier efforts to diversify production.
image source Rystad Energy
