The US wind market is entering a critical period as developers accelerate construction ahead of the phase-out of production and investment tax credits. At the same time, the early-stage project pipeline is weakening as developers face greater permitting, supply chain and policy uncertainty, according to Wood Mackenzie’s US Wind Energy Monitor Q2 2026. The near-term outlook has improved, with Wood Mackenzie increasing its five-year forecast for new greenfield wind capacity by 5% compared with the previous quarter. Annual additions are expected to peak in 2027, supported by offshore wind. However, this growth is unlikely to continue at the same pace as developers focus on advancing existing projects rather than developing new ones.
Construction starts increased 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, while firm turbine orders were more than five times higher than in the first quarter of 2025. The increase reflects the need to meet tax-credit deadlines. Projects that started physical construction before 4 July 2026 must be operational by 31 December 2030 to qualify for the credits. Projects that missed the construction-start deadline must be operational by 31 December 2027.
As a result, developers need to progress permitting, offtake, financing and equipment procurement quickly enough to meet these deadlines.
Offtake conditions are also changing. Corporate power purchase agreement demand is increasing, partly driven by growing electricity consumption from data centres. Google and Xcel Energy’s 1.9 GW portfolio agreement announced in the first quarter of 2026 illustrates the scale of this demand. Corporate buyers could become increasingly important as some utility wind procurement slows.
Offshore wind is expected to provide additional capacity in the near term as projects already under construction approach completion. However, the sector remains exposed to policy and commercial uncertainty. More than 2,900 square kilometres of offshore leases entered termination settlements during the first half of 2026, while proceeds from a $2.7 billion federal buyout are expected to be redirected towards conventional energy, geothermal and fossil fuel projects.
The phase-out of wind tax credits is expected to reduce new wind additions beyond 2030, but the ageing installed base provides opportunities for repowering. Around 81 GW of wind capacity will be at least 15 years old by 2035, particularly in Texas, the Plains and the Midwest.
Replacing older turbines with larger and more efficient machines could increase energy yields while making use of existing land rights, grid connections and permitting precedents. This could reduce development costs and timelines compared with new greenfield projects.
Higher capacity factors and improved turbine technology could also reduce reliance on tax incentives, while rising electricity demand may support new revenue opportunities. Developers will need to secure offtake and grid capacity earlier, but repowering could provide an alternative route for future wind growth.
The US wind market is therefore entering a period of adjustment rather than facing a single decline after 2030. In the longer term, opportunities are likely to favour projects with a clear route to construction and operation, alongside repowering projects. Their development will increasingly depend on commercial fundamentals rather than tax incentives.
