Germany’s recent acceleration in renewable energy deployment has led to increased competition in onshore wind auctions. Government targets, including the aim of installing several turbines each day, have been supported by simplified and faster approval procedures. As a result, feed-in tariff auctions for 2025 have been heavily oversubscribed. In the August round, project submissions reached 5.7 GW against a tender volume of 3.5 GW, leaving many projects without an award.
External analyses released in October pointed to further oversubscription in the November auction. In response, ABO Energy’s management expects award levels to continue falling. Following an internal review, the company has adjusted the valuation of its development projects. Some projects have been rescheduled due to lower award probabilities, and valuations have been aligned with current market conditions. Under these assumptions, the company considers the remaining project portfolio to retain significant value.
International activities are not expected to offset these effects in 2025. Contributing factors include solar oversupply in Spain, wind oversupply in Finland, revised grid access rules in Greece and legislative changes affecting infrastructure sales in Hungary.
ABO Energy has recorded positive annual earnings for nearly three decades. For 2025, the company does not expect this to continue due to the revised valuations. A forecast surplus of €29–39 million has been replaced by an expected net loss of about €-95 million, with limited impact on liquidity. The company maintains a project pipeline of around 30 GW, including ten GW in Germany, which it views as the basis for a return to profitability.
